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It now appears that the Chinese real estate market will face an inevitable correction.  Property prices in major metro areas have skyrocketed in the past decade, the result of a middle class that grew faster than available real estate, along with sky-high inflation statistics that make real estate an excellent store of value for Chinese investors.

In the future, one has to wonder whether a necessary correction in Chinese real estate could trigger a larger rally for silver and gold prices.  Remember, it was only recently that gold contracts were available for purchase on the Chinese future markets—even as the government had touted precious metals as an excellent asset class.

Wealth Destruction isn’t Monetary Destruction

The important thing to remember with “bubbles” of any type is that the destruction of wealth and paper valuations is not monetary destruction.  Homes in China are not highly levered borrowing mechanisms as they were in the United States at the height of the US real estate bubble in 2007.  The capital lost in Chinese real estate is a majority of saved capital, not borrowed capital.

Analysts are projecting a declining real estate market of anywhere from 10% to 40% in the next year, a sign that wouldn’t be so ominous if it were for the fact that analyst are almost entirely aligned in their projections.

Housing sales, which indicate the amount of available liquidity in the market at current prices, continue to slow.  Beijing’s new home sales metrics are off some 17% from the same period last year, while current inventories total up to 22 months of current demand.  This is the same trend that appeared as housing made its peak in the United States.

New Inflation Protection?

Knowing that the value of housing in major Chinese cities will be on the decline—or, at the very least, stall—the reliance on real estate as a store of value may shift.  Investors just might find that the real estate prices in most cities are far too high, and more importantly, not as good of an investment relative to commodities, which have been a Chinese favorite in recent years.

In September, the Chinese imported a record 56.9 tonnes of gold, six times more than average.

It would be in poor form to say that the Chinese real estate market could swing the nation into recession.  Instead, it has been the government’s vast manipulation in the credit markets that have created such an adverse effect.  Reducing the amount of capital required to purchase a home would be a very good step in allowing the real estate market to find a soft bottom.

For others, however, confidence is likely already lost.  Now that Chinese citizens are becoming used to the concept that real estate is not forever inflation resistance, precious metals may soon take the stage as the most liquid, anti-inflationary investment available to local residents.  Such a realization would undoubted be positive, as the Chinese massive annual trade surplus suggests the nation can easily afford much of the bullion available for sale.   The question is, will you buy before China does?

Shying away from high-priced gold, the more affordable alternative seems perfect at current prices, and some analysts believe 2011 demand could come in 50% higher than in 2010.

The October-December quarter is expected to bring 250-300 tonnes of silver demand from India alone, a 50% increase over 2010 levels.  Gold, which is significantly more expensive in nominal terms, especially after fears of a European Debt Crisis contagion event, is expected to see a smaller 30-40% increase in demand.

India as a Silver Consumer

India is incredibly important to the silver market, a truth we’ve repeated in previous analysis of the Indian economic climate and currency.  The Rupee, which often maintains a very thin trading range to the US dollar, often comes into play when the currency breaks from a thin trading range.  When the Rupee is strong, silver, which is priced in dollars, becomes less expensive for Indian citizens.  When the value of the Rupee declines against the dollar, silver becomes more expensive.

Indian demand seems to be heavily levered to the exchange rate between the Indian Rupee and US dollar.  In spring trading, the Rupee fell 2.5% against the dollar as silver stalled out near $50 per ounce in April and May.  Later, silver would plunge nearly 40% in a broad selloff, partially the result of weakening demand from India and concerns about European solvency.

It was later discovered that during the May period, when silver ran to a 2011 high and the Rupee lost 2.5% of its value against the US dollar, Indian demand for silver plunged some 30% from the year-ago period.  Despite this previous decline in demand, total Indian silver imports should come in at 4,000 tonnes for the year.  In 2010, India demanded only 3,000 tonnes of silver.

Democratic Metal

We remain bullish on what is quickly becoming the precious metal of the people.  So far this year, China and India have remained important sources of silver demand.  In 2010, it was found that jewelry buyers in developed countries—especially the United States—were consuming less gold and more silver.  White gold, which is made of both silver and gold mixed together, became more popular.  A decline in demand for high-priced jewelry meant that consumers were switching their preference to mixed gold wedding bands and engagement rings.  Seeing as far more investment-grade gold than silver exists above ground on the earth today, a change in demand for gold means a disproportionately large change in silver demand.

Going forward, silver benefits from the same tailwinds that pushed the metal from $20 to $30 per ounce in 2010.  This year, the starting price is $30 per ounce, which gives credibility to calls that silver may end the year at $50 or more.  Regardless of the short-term, the long-term is incredibly clear: demand for silver will increase from consumers and investors, industrial demand should continue to grow as the solar and chemicals businesses pick up recessionary slack, and silver prices should rocket as a minute shift in demand brings about a much larger shift in price.

Since hitting $1,900 an ounce through the beginning of October, gold has declined nearly 11 percent. Over the same timeframe, the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index lost almost 13 percent. That’s a closer performance correlation than the roughly 3-to-1 gold equities to bullion ratio we’ve historically seen and could mean the miners are finally closing the gap.

However, TD Securities Equity Research points out this interesting fact: Over a period of 18 months prior to hitting $1,900, gold rose 79 percent but TD’s basket of gold equities only increased 57 percent. The firm says this performance gap “ranks as the worst relative performance of gold equities to gold since 2001.” During the July through September period of 2008, TD Securities’ universe of gold equities declined 46 percent, while gold bullion only lost 24 percent. In October through November of 2008, the same gold equities lost 37 percent; while gold decreased 22 percent.

What’s behind today’s record disparity?

Part of it may be due to the underperformance of the explorers and developers, which, TD says, “have been hit the hardest.”

Because of the dramatic price decline in these early-stage companies, investors have the opportunity to purchase explorers & developers (E&D), often referred to as juniors, at about half of the company’s net asset value (NAV). In simplest terms, the NAV means assets minus liabilities. In fact, you can see from the chart that the current price-to-NAV level for E&D equities is sitting near record low levels…levels not seen since the financial crisis of 2008.

TD found that in seven of the past 10 rallies, gold equities beat gold—averaging a beta of 1.4 times. Looking over the next year or so, we believe the smaller gold miners are especially poised to outperform this time. As TD says, “on a rebound, we expect the best performing equities to be among the ranks of the explorers and developers.”

To gold equity buyers like U.S. Global, this represents a tremendous buying opportunity.

The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold and silver.  The index benchmark value was 500.0 at the close of trading on December 20, 2002. Beta is a measure of the volatility, or systematic risk, of a security or a portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole. The S&P/TSX Global Gold Index is an international benchmark tracking the world's leading gold companies with the intent to provide an investable representative index of publicly-traded international gold companies.

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Medusa Mining (LON:MML, ASX:MML, TSE:MLL) repeated today it was confident of reaching its year-end production target of 100,000 ounces of gold as it revealed results for its first quarter.

The firm said it was committed to developing its Co-O mine in the Philippines to produce more ore more efficiently than it does now.

Although production was reduced for the September quarter due to refurbishment at the Agsao shaft, the company said it was confident of achieving its overall year-end goal.

In the three months to September 30, the company produced 10,510 ounces at a recovered grade of 8.33 g/t gold at cash costs of US$291 per ounce. In the comparative quarter in 2010, the firm produced 25,004 ounces at 15.77 g/t at costs of US$187 per ounce.

Medusa also said it spent US$5.36 million on capital works, associated sustaining capital at the mine, and also costs for the new mill construction and infrastructure in the three months to September 30 this year.

It also paid out US$6.74 million on general and accelerated mine development, including shaft sinking costs compared to US$4.5 mln in the June quarter this year.

The Agsao Shaft at the Co-O mine was shut down for extensive refurbishment in July and August with a consequent reduction in production for the period.

At the same time, a larger winder and skip were installed, increasing the haulage capacity of the shaft to more than 400 tonnes per day and commissioning began on 01 September 2011.

Permitting of the Co-O mill expansion - part of plans for a new Co-O plant- has been delayed due to typhoons in September and October, the firm revealed.

In today's statement, managing director Peter Hepburn-Brown said: "Now that we know the layout of approximately two million resource ounces in the mine, the mine is undergoing major renovations to modernise it."

He pointed out that, as with any renovations, there were inconveniences and altered work practices in the process.

"Despite these short term hiccups, on completion we will have a modern efficient underground mine serviced by efficient shafts and underground haulage systems," he said.

This quarter, the sinking of the Saga shaft went smoothly and is expected to be hauling ore in the June 2012 quarter after reaching Level 6 late in the December 2011 quarter, he said.

Hepburn- Brown added: "I urge all shareholders to focus on our long term objectives of developing a profitable long term asset and not to be influenced by short term production volatility".

In today's report the firm also updated investors about current drilling at the Co-O mine, where six surface and five underground rigs are in action.

The results include 1.40 metres at 28.02 grammes per tonne (g/t) gold, 1.45 metres at 56.23 g/t gold, 2.50 metres at 72.80 g/t gold and 1 metre at 21.53 g/t gold.

High gold price is unlikely to deter jewellery buyers during the days leading to Dhanteras and traders are expecting a robust season with around 30-35 percent spurt in sales.

“We expect jewellery sales to grow up to 35 per cent, especially in the light and medium weight category as well as the coins category,” Shree Ganesh Jewellery House Marketing and Communications Head Rahul Singh told PTI here.

Since the past few days, he said, there has been a spike in sales and the prevailing high prices has in fact has boosted the sales.

Last year, Shree Ganesh’s three stores alone had generated Rs 6-crore business on Dhanteras, the Hindu festival considered auspicious for buying precious metals, including jewellery, as well as other alloy products like automobiles.

“With 10 stores this year we are expecting about Rs 11-12-crore business,” Singh added.

Echoing the view, Gitanjali Group Chairman and Managing Director Mehul Choksi said the demand has been picking up since the past few days and will peak during Dhanteras (which falls on October 24).

“We are expecting about 20-25 per cent growth in terms of volume and up to 60 percent in terms of value,” he said.

During the four days leading to Dhanteras, the Gitanjali Group is expecting around Rs 400-crore business compared to Rs 250 crore last year, he said.

Explaining about sales in different categories, Choksi said, he is expecting 15 per cent in coins, 50 per cent in gold jewellery and 35-40 per cent in diamond jewellery.

Talking about demand ahead of the festive season, World Gold Council Managing Director (India and West East), Ajay Mitra said, “with prices stabilising, and Diwali and the wedding season around, demand is sure to see a surge. Demand for gold as an investment option as well as jewellery will rise too.

Cleveland Mining Company (ASX: CDG) is edging closer to mining at the Crixás Premier Gold Mine in central Brazil in late 2011.

Infill drilling continues at Premier to verify the current mine design and add confidence to the first year’s pit shell.

Geological mapping and sampling has been performed to define the footwall contact in the area where mining will
start.

Mining is planned to begin in an area that is already clear of vegetation.

Specifications for plant have been finalised and the longest lead items have been ordered. Two SB1350 Falcon gravity concentrators are expected to arrive in Brazil in late November and a 500kW Ball mill has been ordered
from a local Brazilian supplier with delivery expected in December.

The final details of gravity circuit engineering are on track for completion next month.

Cleveland is managing eight projects located in three ‘hubs’ in Brazil and Chile:

– Crixás Hub, central Brazil Gold 5 projects
– Central West Hub, central Chile Gold/Copper 2 projects
– Amapá Hub, northern Brazil Iron ore 1 projects

Cash balance at 30 September 2011 was A$10.5 million, assuming inclusion of an additional A$4 million from Aosen Steel.

Recent drop in gold prices has resulted in an increase in footfalls at various jewellery shops of the city and has given Patnaites a perfect reason to invest in gold and buy gifts for their loved ones.

“Compared to last year, our sale has increased by 50%,” Umesh Tekriwal, manager, Tanishq, said, adding, “Last year, we had sold around seven kg of gold during Diwali, while this year we have already sold 11kg gold.”

“For gift purposes, people’s first choice are lightweight gold and diamond items ranging from Rs 15,000 to Rs 20,000. We have already sold 1.5kg of gold in this segment. But, the demand of diamond and Kundan Palki jewellery worth Rs 3 lakh and above is also high. Every day we sell more than three such items,” Tekriwal said.

Vishwajeet of Hira Panna Jewellers, Boring Road, also feels that the slide in gold prices has brought more customers to jewellery shops. “Antique items ranging from Rs 80,000 to Rs 1 lakh are more in demand as people are trying to take advantage of the drop in gold prices.”

“We are expecting the sale to rise even more on Dhanteras,” said Sanjay Kumar ‘Mohan’, owner, Nakshatra Jewellers, Frazer Road. “Customers coming here are focusing mainly on diamond jewellery worth Rs 10,000 to 25,000 for gift.”

Much of this demand is from consumers who want to buy low now and then resell when the gold prices rise again in a day or two.

 

True enough, people are investing and transacting gold every single day. But there is one metal that should not be taken for granted and that is silver. On the functional side, silver is more reasonably priced than gold. Then again, it is basic to note that silver reserves move in sync with gold. The trend is that the value of gold and silver are rising when the general population loses confidence to the paper based financial system. When there is a danger in the economy, many are investing in gold and silver.

Characteristics Of Silver
Conventionally, silver is malleable and supple. They are quite soft. That is why, fine silver or pure silver is not used raw. To make it sturdier, alloys and other metals are mixed with silver. One of the most popular type of silvers is Sterling Silver. It is produced when the proportion of silver and copper is at 925:75.

Sterling silver is used in the assembly of jewelries, holloware and other silver containers.

Silversmithing
Silversmithing is the art of working with silver to make or restructure another object. Silversmithing is different from blacksmithing. To describe better, silversmithing is the science that utilizes flat silver sheet and forming it via tools. Hammers are very constructive and functional in silversmithing. They are used to crush the silver into a special contour and extent. Hammers come in different forms and purposes. One of the most commonly used hammers is known as the planishing hammer. It smooths the surface of the silver design. For sure, it is one handy completing tool. Aside from the planishing hammer, silversmiths also use blocks, anvils and stakes. They are used to hold the silver in place while they are being wrought and hammered.

Forms Of Silver
Just like gold, silver comes in a variety of forms.

People can invest in silver jewelries which are very eye catching and captivating. Sterling silvers are very desirable. Nevertheless, it can discolor after some time. Tarnish can appear as a result of corrosion. Then again, preventing the developing of tarnish is basic and fast. One can use the basic home remedies like baking soda, chalk and aluminum. Or possibly invest in quality silver finish that is proven to cushion the silver from tarnishing. Aside from silver jewelries, people can invest in silver coins and bullion. Coin dealers and coin collectors value these metals since these are very appealing items. As some items go back to the early 1900s. Truly, silver coins and bullion are not just artistic, they are monumental and significant. Of course, owning an old silver coin can make one stand with conceit and honor.

Silver Applications
Aside from being a fantastic investment vehicle, silver are also used for several applications and functions. In dentistry, they are utilized as dental fillings. Though, some people have seen that gold can also be used in dentistry. Dental amalgram which is a stiff paste is also made by mixing powdered silver and other rudiments like mercury. They are formed to fit the shape of the cavity. Also, in music, most wind instruments are made of silver just like flutes. This formidable instrument is shaped with the use of silver alloy.

Silver indeed is one metal to value not just for investment purposes but for other applications as well. The application of silver has covered many industries including dental, medicine, music, fashion and cinematography. Silver has actually changed millions of lives. So do not take for this metal for granted because it has its distinctive uses and applications that people should be grateful of.